America's Energy Gamble Could Backfire

In 2025, the United States made a clear choice.

It wasn't for innovation. It wasn’t for leadership.

It was for fossil fuels.

And that decision might cost more than anyone is willing to admit.

The Factory That Changed Course

In June, workers in Orion Township, Michigan were blindsided. General Motors canceled a $4.3 billion expansion to build electric pickup trucks. Instead, the company said it would retool the plant to build gas-powered V8s.

That same week, Toyota pulled back from an electric SUV factory project in Indiana.

This wasn’t a coincidence. It was a response.

Washington had just moved to end federal clean energy incentives. The companies reacted quickly. When the money dried up, so did the momentum.

That week marked the start of America’s sharp turn back to fossil fuels. EVs and renewables were sidelined. Oil, gas, coal, and legacy infrastructure were given a green light.

What Triggered the Shift in Policy

The 2024 election brought a change in power. By July 4, 2025, President Trump signed a bill that stripped out many of the clean energy programs passed in recent years.

The bill removed tax credits for wind, solar, and EVs. Projects that had years to qualify now had less than 24 months to get started. Most won’t make the deadline.

BloombergNEF now projects a 41% drop in annual clean energy installations by 2028.

The law didn’t just slow clean energy. It rewarded legacy energy. It added a permanent tax credit for metallurgical coal. It tightened restrictions on clean tech supply chains that involved China. It favored "consistent" sources of energy, which meant fossil fuels, nuclear, and hydropower.

This was not about balancing the grid. It was a political decision. Republican lawmakers argued that renewables were unreliable, expensive, and foreign-controlled. Oil and gas offered jobs, self-reliance, and profits.

The logic was simple. If you can drill it at home and burn it on demand, it wins.

The Problem With the Timing

The push toward fossil fuels comes at a moment when shale oil is no longer growing. U.S. shale transformed global energy markets in the last decade. But the data now shows it is leveling off.

Rig counts are down more than 30% since 2022. Production is projected to decline slightly through 2026.

Companies aren’t drilling aggressively anymore. They are shifting to cash flow. The easy wells have been tapped. What remains is more expensive and more complex.

Even the Permian Basin, the core of U.S. oil production, is showing signs of wear. Water management problems are creating legal battles. Costs are rising. Productivity is falling.

Chevron, one of the industry leaders, said it clearly. They are not aiming to grow. They are trying to hold the line while returning capital to shareholders.

This is what plateau looks like.

Just as oil production slows, policy is pulling back from the very technologies that could reduce oil demand.

It’s a contradiction.

The country is becoming more dependent on a resource that is harder to grow. At the same time, it is killing support for alternatives that could reduce that dependence.

That is not a strategy. That is a gamble.

What This Means for the Economy

Oil prices have already started climbing. Futures rose 12% over the summer despite high inventory numbers. The market is looking ahead. It sees tighter supply and slower demand growth from EVs.

This is not just a guess. It is baked into new projections. OPEC now expects oil demand to grow into 2050. One reason for that outlook is the policy retreat in the United States.

Investors are watching the shift in real time.

Since the clean energy rollback, traditional energy stocks have rallied. Renewable stocks have dropped. Projects worth over $22 billion have been canceled or delayed. More than 16,000 jobs are on the line.

Ironically, half of that investment was planned in Republican districts. Those communities are now losing jobs that could have diversified local economies.

Without stable tax credits, financing for clean energy is drying up. Projects that don’t break ground in 2025 may never happen at all.

This is not just a down cycle. It could turn into a full-blown bust.

What Investors Should Do Right Now

Policy is now driving the market as much as supply and demand. Here is what that means for investors:

  1. Add exposure to oil and gas
    Shale may be flatlining, but global demand is not. With fewer clean alternatives, oil demand could stay strong longer. That supports higher prices and stronger returns for quality producers.

  2. Be selective with clean energy
    This isn’t the end of renewables. But the U.S. market is under pressure. Focus on companies with projects in states or countries that still support clean energy with stable policy.

  3. Watch the overlooked sectors
    Nuclear and hydropower kept their tax credits. These legacy clean technologies could gain ground as wind and solar face setbacks.

  4. Make asymmetric bets when the setup is right
    The clean tech sell-off may offer long-term value. Allocate 1–5% of your portfolio to high-risk, high-reward plays in undervalued renewables. These are bets that could pay off big once the policy winds shift again.

The Big Picture

The United States is moving back to fossil fuels just as the engine of oil production is running low on horsepower.

It may help in the short term. But it introduces new risks for the future—higher prices, more volatility, and missed opportunities in global clean tech leadership.

Policy shifts are reshaping the energy landscape. Investors who ignore that will get blindsided.

This is not about ideology. It’s about positioning.

If you're willing to look past the noise, the roadmap is clear: Hedge with oil. Stay sharp on renewables. Avoid leverage. Be ready for the turn. Because it will come.

And when it does, those who moved early will be the ones ahead of the crowd.

Stay Sharp,

Gideon Ashwood

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