There are two kinds of investors in the world right now...
Those who see Europe as a slow, bureaucratic continent that has missed the innovation wave, and those who realize it's becoming the most strategically valuable market on the planet.
Here’s the part most people missed:
While headlines were captivated by Silicon Valley's AI boom and Washington's political drama, a quiet transformation was unfolding across the Atlantic.
And it might be the most investable macro shift of the next decade.
In December 2025, on a cold morning in Brussels, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic took the podium and declared what few thought Europe had the courage to say:
“We want to move from reacting to reshaping our policies.”
It was the official birth of Europe’s new economic security doctrine. A historic pivot from dependence to dominance.
And if you know how to position yourself early, it could change your net worth forever.
Europe Isn’t Just Waking Up. It’s Rewiring Its Entire Economy
For decades, the term "strategic autonomy" was little more than political vapor. A lofty dream tossed around in EU meetings with no teeth.
That time is over.
Now, it’s real. And the numbers prove it.
After the trauma of COVID, war in Ukraine, and weaponized trade policies from China and the U.S., Europe realized something crucial:
It had to stop depending on others to keep the lights on, protect its citizens, and drive innovation.
So it did what few expected. It started rebuilding from the ground up.
Energy Independence
After Russia cut off its gas, Europe slashed Russian imports and ramped up LNG terminals, solar, wind, and grid modernization. Storage levels are stable.
Prices have normalized. And Europe’s green transition has become a national security initiative, not just an eco-political talking point.
Defense Renaissance
European defense spending hit a record €343 billion in 2024. In 2025, it surged to €381 billion. That amount is more than 1.5 times China’s budget and three times what Russia spends.
Every EU nation but two increased defense budgets. New fighter jets, joint munitions, naval upgrades, and cybersecurity programs are now in the spotlight.
For investors, this means a booming landscape for defense contractors, aerospace, shipbuilding, and tech.
Tech Reshoring
The EU Chips Act is pouring billions into semiconductor fabrication. TSMC broke ground on its first European facility in Dresden. The EU wants to double its share of global chip production by 2030.
Europe is also investing heavily in AI, biotech, clean tech, and digital infrastructure. Entire startup ecosystems are forming with sovereign backing.
Europe is no longer reacting.
It is building. Systematically. Intentionally. Relentlessly.
And investors who understand this shift are already positioning themselves to benefit.
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The Numbers Don’t Lie: Europe Is Quietly Outperforming
While U.S. headlines drooled over Nvidia and Wall Street fixated on the Fed, Europe’s markets did something unexpected.
They beat expectations. In many cases, they even outpaced U.S. indexes.
Germany’s DAX and the UK’s FTSE 100 each surged roughly 20% in 2025
Europe’s currency appreciated by about 14% against the dollar
Energy, defense, tech, and infrastructure sectors led the charge
International stocks, driven by Europe and Asia, outperformed U.S. equities by 15 percentage points, the widest margin in over two decades
Quietly, a historic capital rotation began.
Global investors who had ignored Europe for years began returning. Inflows picked up. Mergers and acquisitions surged. Banks struck $27 billion in deals. Startups in tech attracted record levels of funding.
Why the sudden shift?
Because Europe no longer looks like the sick man of the developed world.
It looks undervalued, under-leveraged, and severely under-owned.
It looks like the ultimate contrarian bet with real upside.
And more than anything, it looks like the most investable geopolitical comeback story on the map.
Strategic Autonomy Isn’t Just Policy. It’s Psychological Warfare
Let’s be clear. What Europe is doing goes beyond economics.
This is a war of mindset.
For years, Europe watched American politics drift toward dysfunction. It watched China weaponize trade. It felt its own vulnerability when the gas stopped flowing, and the supply chains snapped.
Now it is standing up.
Europe is saying: Never again. And the implications are profound.
A stronger Europe means a more balanced transatlantic alliance. Washington may find itself working with a partner rather than a dependent.
A more self-reliant Europe means a tougher negotiator in Beijing. One who can walk away from the table.
For investors, this shift means betting on a region that is becoming more resilient, more innovative, and more capable of defending its economic future.
In an age of chaos, fragmentation, and unpredictability, Europe is playing the long game.
Its greatest strength might just be its newfound unity.
The Window Is Still Open, But It Won’t Stay That Way Forever
Here’s the uncomfortable truth:
Most investors are still asleep at the wheel.
They still believe Europe is where capital goes to retire. They believe Europe is a continent full of aging economies and overregulation.
That its only value lies in dividend aristocrats and luxury brands.
That belief is wrong.
Europe is undergoing a transformation. Its markets are stirring. Its industries are coming back to life. And its indexes, after years of lagging, are finally showing signs of momentum.
For now, valuations remain reasonable. The euro is gaining strength. Capital flows are growing.
This is your opportunity to act before the crowd catches on.
Because once the headlines start calling Europe a comeback story...
The easy money will already be gone.
How to Get Exposure to Europe’s Autonomy Boom
Look into European equity funds focused on:
Defense and aerospace
Clean energy and infrastructure
Semiconductors and industrial tech
Mid-cap companies with sovereign backing
These are the sectors benefiting from both policy and capital support.
This is not a six-week trade.
It’s a multi-year opportunity. Possibly a generational one.
The global order is shifting. The old centers of power are no longer guaranteed. And Europe, for the first time in a generation, is rewriting its role in the world economy.
The only question is whether you recognize the shift before everyone else does.
Stay Sharp,
Gideon Ashwood
P.S. Wishing you and your loved ones a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. There will be no Thursday essay this week, as I’ll be spending the day offline with my closest family and friends. I encourage you to do the same.
See you next week.