They didn’t ring a bell at the top of the bond market. They never do. But if you were paying attention in 2025, you heard the thunderclap.
Interest payments on U.S. debt quietly surpassed $970 billion this year, overtaking defense spending for the first time in history.
That number should stop any investor cold.
Not because it’s abstract or academic, but because it signals something far more consequential: the regime has changed.
The multi-decade era of falling interest rates, disinflation, and king-dollar dominance is behind us. The market dynamics that built trillions in wealth through 60/40 portfolios and low-cost debt are no longer the default setting.
We are now in a new world. One that will reward different assets, different geographies, and different strategies.
If this shift is treated like a short-term blip, the next ten years may be filled with avoidable setbacks.
But by recognizing it as a structural break, it becomes possible to get ahead of one of the most important realignments in modern financial history.
Let’s break it down, and more importantly, outline the implications for investment strategy.
The Death of the Bond Bull Market