At first glance, the global oil market looks calm.
Forecasts suggest a surplus. Analysts expect inventories to rise. Several major agencies project lower average oil prices over the next year.
If those forecasts told the whole story, inflation pressure should be fading.
Yet events unfolding in the Middle East tell a very different story.
In southern Iraq, oil producers recently faced a problem that spreadsheets cannot easily capture. Millions of barrels of crude were sitting in storage, but exports slowed dramatically because ships could not safely move through the Strait of Hormuz.
Within days, Iraq cut production by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day. Officials warned the reduction could grow to more than 3 million barrels per day if tanker traffic remained constrained.
The cause was simple. Storage tanks were filling faster than exports could move out.
When storage fills, production must stop.
That moment is where supply disruptions begin, and inflation pressure builds.
When Oil Exists but Cannot Move