The Dangerous Lie Driving America's Foreign Policy

The Dangerous Lie Driving America's Foreign Policy

Why We Keep Getting War Wrong

There is a mistake that keeps repeating in Washington.

It starts with a name: Hitler. And a date: 1938.

And it ends, more often than not, with American soldiers bleeding in a country most people can’t find on a map.

This mistake has a name. You’ve heard it before. The Munich Analogy.

It sounds like wisdom. It sounds tough. But behind it is a dangerous idea that could push us into a war we don't need and can't afford.

Let’s look at how we got here. And what we still have time to change.

The Day We Almost Ended the World

In October 1962, the United States came closer to nuclear war than ever before.

Soviet missiles had landed in Cuba. Many in Washington, including Air Force General Curtis LeMay, wanted to strike immediately.

President John F. Kennedy chose a different path. He called for a naval blockade and started secret negotiations.

LeMay was furious. He compared Kennedy’s decision to Neville Chamberlain’s infamous appeasement of Hitler in Munich.

But Kennedy held his ground.

The result was a quiet agreement. The Soviets pulled their missiles out of Cuba. In return, the U.S. removed its own from Turkey.

No bombs fell. No cities burned.

That outcome wasn’t luck. It was strategy. And it worked.

Today’s Leaders Are Still Haunted by Munich

Now we are in a different war, in a different part of the world. But the same ghost keeps showing up.

In debates over Ukraine, leaders and pundits constantly reach for the same comparison. They say negotiating with Putin would be like negotiating with Hitler. They say compromise is weakness. And they call anyone who disagrees an appeaser.

It plays well on TV. But it creates a false choice.

Either you support total war, or you are surrendering to evil.

That is not strategy. That is emotional storytelling disguised as foreign policy.

Putin Is Not Hitler

This is not to defend Putin. He is aggressive, repressive, and dangerous.

But he is not planning to march across Europe. He is not trying to take over the world. His ambitions, while serious, are regional.

Hitler wanted global war. He was not deterred by diplomacy. Nothing short of destruction could stop him.

Putin is not that kind of enemy.

That difference matters.

Treating every conflict like World War II leads to bad decisions. It leads to long wars with unclear goals. And history has shown us exactly what that looks like.

Vietnam. Iraq. Afghanistan. All Framed as “Never Again.”

In Vietnam, Lyndon Johnson escalated because he believed backing down would invite more aggression, just like Munich.

In 2003, George W. Bush used the same language to justify invading Iraq. He said appeasing Saddam would be a mistake we had seen before.

Each time, U.S. leaders framed the enemy as the next Hitler. And each time, the war became longer, bloodier, and less connected to reality.

This pattern is not new. But it is still costing us.

The Real Risks in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine is brutal. The Ukrainian people have every right to defend their country.

But Washington’s goal has become dangerously vague. Some now argue that nothing less than total Russian defeat is acceptable. Some say even discussing a ceasefire is equivalent to Munich.

That position sounds strong. But what if it is not realistic?

Military experts agree that removing every Russian soldier from Ukrainian territory may not be possible without massive escalation. That could include NATO involvement and a direct clash with a nuclear power.

Is that a risk we are prepared to take?

Endless War or Smart Strategy?

This does not mean letting Russia win.

It means setting achievable goals and recognizing limits.

It means thinking like Kennedy did in 1962. You don’t have to trust your enemy to cut a deal that avoids a larger disaster.

That approach is not weakness. It is discipline.

During the Cold War, the U.S. faced a far larger threat in the Soviet Union. Yet we still pursued arms control, negotiated treaties, and avoided direct war.

We didn’t always like it. But it worked.

Part of the reason we keep repeating this pattern is simple. It’s politically effective.

No one wants to be seen as weak. No one wants to be the next Neville Chamberlain. So leaders overcompensate.

They make the stakes absolute. And they shut down conversation.

But that mindset removes our ability to see the conflict clearly. And it keeps us locked in a pattern of overreaction.

The Other Side of the Story

We also need to be honest about Ukraine’s own actions. In recent years, the Ukrainian government has passed laws limiting Russian language rights. They have removed monuments, restricted media, and pursued a form of national identity that excluded many ethnic Russians.

These moves are understandable. But they also gave Moscow propaganda it could use to justify aggression.

No, Ukraine did not start this war. And no, Putin’s justification is not legitimate.

But understanding the full picture helps us build better strategy. One that doesn’t give our enemies easy talking points. And one that doesn’t rely on black-and-white thinking.

What We Need to Learn

The lesson of Munich is not that diplomacy always fails.

The lesson is that some enemies cannot be stopped with talk alone. But others can.

Our job is to know the difference.

And in Ukraine, failing to see that difference could lead to disaster.

What You Can Do

You don’t need a title to help change the conversation.

Next time you hear someone say, “This is just like 1938,” ask a question.

What exactly are we trying to prevent? What is the strategy? What outcome are we willing to accept?

Push for clear thinking. Share articles that offer real analysis, not just emotional arguments. Ask your elected leaders what their goals are. Demand better answers.

Because the more we repeat the same slogans, the more likely we are to repeat the same mistakes.

The Next War Won’t Start with Bombs. It’ll Start with Bad History.

The past is not a blueprint. It is a warning.

Every situation is different. And every strategy must be built for the facts in front of us, not the ghosts behind us.

The war in Ukraine is real. The stakes are high. But it is not 1938.

If we keep pretending it is, we could walk into something much worse than compromise.

We could walk into a war that didn’t have to happen.

Stay Sharp,

Gideon Ashwood