The Dollar Is Slipping and Nobody's Sounding the Alarm
How One Trade Between Brazil and China Opened the Door to the Next Global Financial Power Shift
In August 2023, a trade went through between Brazil and China that barely made a blip in the news. But it was a big deal.
Brazil’s Eldorado Brasil shipped 43 containers of pulp to a Chinese buyer. The Chinese paid in renminbi. Eldorado received the money in Brazilian reais. No U.S. dollars changed hands.
This was the first time in China-Brazil trade history that the dollar was completely bypassed.
The transaction looked simple. But it marked a shift in how major economies are choosing to do business. Quietly, more countries are working to move trade away from the dollar. The reasons behind it are economic, not political. But the implications are massive.
Think about how strange this is. If a company in Zambia wants to buy something from Kenya, it has to convert local currency into U.S. dollars, then back into Kenyan shillings. This comes with high fees, delays, and unnecessary complexity.
Now, countries are asking why this system still exists.
And they’re doing something about it.
BRICS countries are leading the charge. They’re not talking about it. They’re acting on it. According to Russian officials, more than 65 percent of trade within BRICS is now handled in non-dollar currencies.
Ten years ago, the dollar dominated that space. Today, it’s losing ground.
Africa is moving in the same direction. The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) now allows cross-border payments between African countries in their local currencies. This change can save African nations as much as $5 billion a year in lost currency fees.
It also speeds up settlement times. Instead of waiting days or weeks for a payment to clear through U.S. or European banks, a company in Kenya can pay a supplier in Ghana almost instantly.
The impact on cash flow, trade volume, and local economies is significant.
Why Countries Are Breaking Away Now
Three things are driving this shift.
First, emerging economies have learned what happens when the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Debt becomes more expensive. Their currencies fall. Imports get more costly.
They lose control of their financial stability.
Second, geopolitical risk is rising. Russia’s sanctions in 2022 were a wake-up call. If your entire trade system depends on dollars, you’re vulnerable. Countries want to reduce that exposure.
Third, there’s a growing realization that the global financial system doesn’t reflect today’s world. The Global South holds most of the population and a big share of global GDP, yet still operates under a U.S.-centric system. That system benefits Washington more than anyone else.
This isn’t an ideological revolt. It’s about practical economics.
Right now, the dollar is still the dominant reserve currency. It makes up about 60 percent of international reserves and is used in about 75 percent of trade invoicing.
But the numbers are only part of the story.
The dollar system is deeply entrenched, but it’s expensive. It forces countries to hold dollar reserves they may not need. It exposes them to political risks. And it gives Washington enormous leverage over global trade.
Alternatives like the yuan or rupee aren’t ready to take over, but that’s not the point. The goal isn’t to replace the dollar tomorrow. It’s to give countries more options. More control.
Less dependence.
And that’s already happening.
The Old Rules Are Fading. Are You Adjusting to the New Ones?
Don’t expect a dramatic collapse. The dollar’s decline is not going to look like a movie plot.
It’s going to look like this:
More bilateral trade agreements outside the dollar. More regional payment systems like PAPSS.
More quiet announcements that a country is holding fewer dollars or increasing gold reserves or experimenting with digital currencies.
By the time it becomes obvious, it will be too late to react.
If you want to stay ahead of this trend, here’s what to do:
Watch what currencies countries are using in trade. That tells you where power is moving.
Consider how this affects your investments. If the dollar’s global demand weakens, other assets stand to benefit.
Don’t assume the old system will last just because it’s familiar. It’s already changing.
The dollar was never just a currency. It was a system of control. It shaped global finance for nearly a century. But that system is now being questioned by the very countries it was designed to serve.
Not because they’re trying to make a statement. But because they can’t afford not to.
This shift will not be reversed. It may slow down or speed up. But it won’t stop.
The financial world is moving. Quietly. Slowly. Inevitably.
The only question is whether you’ll move with it or wait until it moves past you.
Stay Sharp,
Gideon Ashwood