The Great Disconnect: Why Oil Stocks Are Surging Even as Crude Slumps
What if I told you the price of oil could drop... and your oil investments could still soar?
That’s exactly what played out in late 2025.
While headlines screamed "glut," energy stocks quietly rallied. Brent crude drifted lower. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sagged. Yet, oil equities marched higher.
To the average investor, this disconnect made no sense. Oil prices down = oil stocks down, right?
Wrong. And here’s why that misunderstanding may cost you a fortune.
The Mirage of Oversupply
Big banks and global agencies are forecasting $50 oil in 2026.
But the market doesn’t believe them.
Brent held firm around $67. WTI dipped below $63, sure, but the long-dated contracts?
They didn’t flinch. 2026 futures sat at $65 to $70.
That tells you something.
Investors with serious money on the line aren’t betting on a glut.
They’re betting on tightness. They see the spare capacity vanishing. They see inventories running dry.
They see the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the U.S.'s emergency stash, sitting at levels not seen since 1984.
They’re not watching the daily headlines. They’re watching the structural foundations.
And those foundations are showing cracks.
Shrinking Shock Absorbers