- GeoPolitical Alpha
- Posts
- The Hidden Tax That’s Wrecking Your Wallet
The Hidden Tax That’s Wrecking Your Wallet
How tariffs, debt, and a weakening dollar are setting off a slow-moving crisis
The Hidden Tax That’s Wrecking Your Wallet
How tariffs, debt, and a weakening dollar are setting off a slow-moving crisis
Let’s start with a fact.
In June, Hasbro laid off 150 workers. The reason? Rising costs.
More specifically, tariffs.
Hasbro makes half its toys in China. When tariffs hit, prices rose fast. What was supposed to protect American jobs ended up destroying them instead.
This wasn’t just a corporate problem. It was a warning shot.
And if you think it ends with Hasbro, think again.
The reality is that we are watching a full-blown stagflation scenario take shape. That means slower growth, higher prices, and a weaker dollar all at the same time. Most people aren’t ready for what comes next.
Let’s unpack what’s happening and why it matters.
Stagflation Is No Longer a Theory. It’s Here.
The economy is slowing down. Fast.
GDP growth dropped to 1.2 percent in the first half of 2025, compared to 2.8 percent in 2024. Consumer spending has barely moved.
Businesses rushed to import goods before new tariffs kicked in, which caused a spike in Q1 and a collapse in Q2. It looked good on the surface, but under the hood the economy is losing momentum.
Meanwhile, inflation is heating up again.
The consumer price index went from 2.3 percent in April to 2.7 percent in June. Food is up. Furniture is up. Everyday items are quietly becoming more expensive. And real wages are stuck or falling.
People are paying more and getting less.
All of this points to stagflation: weak growth, rising prices, and no easy fix.
The Federal Reserve has one job. Keep prices stable and support employment. Right now, those goals are pulling in opposite directions.
Cut rates to help growth? Inflation will rise.
Hold rates steady to fight inflation? Growth slows even more.
This is a classic no-win setup.