The New Oil War: The Resource Most People Ignore Will Decide the Winners of the Next Century

The New Oil War: The Resource Most People Ignore Will Decide the Winners of the Next Century

In April 2025, European automakers hit a wall. Production lines went silent. Not because of a labor strike or a global pandemic. The problem was smaller than anyone expected but more dangerous than most imagined.

China cut off exports of rare-earth magnets. And just like that, assembly lines in Germany and France ground to a halt.

This wasn’t theory. It happened. And it showed the world how fragile the foundation of modern industry really is. The tools we use to build the future depend on minerals that most people have never heard of.

And right now, the countries that control those minerals are pulling ahead.

Everyone knows oil built the 20th century. It powered cities, wars, and economies.

But oil is no longer the key to global leverage. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths are.

These minerals power everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to missile guidance systems and fighter jets. An F-35 jet needs 900 pounds of rare earths. A Virginia-class submarine needs more than 9,000 pounds.

There is no clean energy future, no AI revolution, and no national security without these inputs.

The demand curve is clear. Lithium demand is projected to grow 40 times by 2040. Prices are already reacting. Between 2019 and 2022, lithium prices quadrupled. Cobalt and nickel doubled.

The shift is already happening. Most people just haven’t noticed.

China’s Long Game