The New Oil War: The Resource Most People Ignore Will Decide the Winners of the Next Century
In April 2025, European automakers hit a wall. Production lines went silent. Not because of a labor strike or a global pandemic. The problem was smaller than anyone expected but more dangerous than most imagined.
China cut off exports of rare-earth magnets. And just like that, assembly lines in Germany and France ground to a halt.
This wasn’t theory. It happened. And it showed the world how fragile the foundation of modern industry really is. The tools we use to build the future depend on minerals that most people have never heard of.
And right now, the countries that control those minerals are pulling ahead.
Everyone knows oil built the 20th century. It powered cities, wars, and economies.
But oil is no longer the key to global leverage. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths are.
These minerals power everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to missile guidance systems and fighter jets. An F-35 jet needs 900 pounds of rare earths. A Virginia-class submarine needs more than 9,000 pounds.
There is no clean energy future, no AI revolution, and no national security without these inputs.
The demand curve is clear. Lithium demand is projected to grow 40 times by 2040. Prices are already reacting. Between 2019 and 2022, lithium prices quadrupled. Cobalt and nickel doubled.
The shift is already happening. Most people just haven’t noticed.
China’s Long Game
While the West was focused on tech and finance, China was locking down control of the world's mineral supply chains.
Today, China controls about 90 percent of global rare earth processing. It also handles most of the world’s lithium and cobalt refining.
It doesn’t matter if a mine is in Australia or Chile. The raw material usually ends up in China for processing. That’s the choke point. And China knows it.
In 2010, China blocked rare earth exports to Japan. In 2023, it restricted exports of gallium and germanium. In 2025, it struck again, this time targeting the magnets that run electric motors and defense systems.
This is not random. It’s strategy.
The United States, Europe, and their allies are trying to catch up. They are building stockpiles, investing in domestic mining, and creating new trade partnerships. But it takes 10 to 20 years to build a new mine.
This is a race. And we are behind.
Countries with mineral reserves are gaining ground. Indonesia banned nickel exports to force companies to build battery factories locally. Chile is building new partnerships to develop its lithium resources. These moves are creating a new class of global power brokers.
At the same time, tech companies, automakers, and defense contractors are finding out how vulnerable they are. Many are redesigning their products to reduce reliance on rare earths.
Others are investing directly in mines just to keep production moving.
And for investors, the implications are clear.
Companies with access to reliable mineral supply chains will lead. Those without will lose ground. This is already playing out in earnings reports, product launches, and defense contracts.
What This Means for You
This isn’t a niche issue for mining analysts. It is a defining economic and geopolitical reality.
If you invest in tech, autos, defense, or energy, you are investing in industries that run on critical minerals. If you don’t understand who controls those inputs, you don’t understand the risk.
The opportunity is also massive. Battery recycling, domestic mining, and new refining technologies are growing fast. Companies building solutions for mineral independence are in the early stages of what could be a decades-long bull market.
The key is positioning. Waiting for this to hit mainstream headlines will be too late. By then, the big moves will have already happened.
We are in a global competition for control of the minerals that power everything. The stakes are not theoretical. They are economic, strategic, and immediate.
Oil defined the last century. Critical minerals will define this one.
Those who act now won’t just avoid being caught flat-footed. They’ll have the chance to lead the next wave of innovation, energy, and defense.
The question is simple. Do you want to be ahead of this curve or behind it?
The next ten years will reward those who saw the shift early and moved with purpose…
Do not come to this moment unprepared.
Stay Sharp,
Gideon Ashwood