Who Controls Africa's Minerals Controls the Future

Who Controls Africa's Minerals Controls the Future

The Next Global Power Shift Begins in the Ground

In June 2025, two longtime enemies, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, sat across from each other in the Oval Office.

With U.S. diplomats observing closely, they signed a peace deal. But the real story was not the peace itself. It was what the DRC offered in return. Access.

To the world’s largest cobalt and coltan deposits, valued at hundreds of billions of dollars.

This was not just diplomacy. It was the United States attempting to regain ground in a race it has been losing for two decades.

And this race will decide who leads in energy, technology, and defense for the next 50 years.

The Modern Economy Is Built on Critical Minerals

Cobalt. Lithium. Rare earths. Platinum.

These are not speculative plays. They are essential inputs for electric vehicles, solar panels, missiles, semiconductors, and satellites. Africa contains 30 percent of the world’s critical mineral reserves, including:

• 90 percent of the world’s platinum-group metals, located in South Africa

• Half of all global cobalt reserves, concentrated in the DRC’s copper belt

• Significant lithium and rare earth reserves throughout southern and central Africa

This is not a climate or ESG story. It is about supply, leverage, and control.

Whoever secures these minerals will influence prices, manufacturing timelines, and technological growth across industries.

Right now, that power sits with China.

How China Took the Lead Without a Fight

While American capital was focused elsewhere, China was making long-term moves.

Through its Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing poured billions into African infrastructure in exchange for control over mining assets.

By 2024, Chinese companies had:

• Gained ownership or operational control of 15 out of 17 major cobalt and copper mines in the DRC

• Captured nearly all lithium exports from Africa

• Expanded into processing and refining facilities across the continent

China is not just mining these resources. It is refining and exporting them on its own terms.

This gives Beijing control over price, flow, and availability of minerals that every modern economy depends on.

They have already shown their willingness to weaponize this leverage. Rare earths, germanium, and gallium have all faced export restrictions for "security reasons."

A U.S. defense official summed it up clearly:

This is no longer a future threat. It is an active vulnerability.

The United States Is Late but Finally Moving

The DRC-Rwanda peace deal was not just about ending conflict. It was about unlocking a locked-up part of the world.

In return for helping to end the war, the United States received a new level of access.

American firms are being invited back in to explore, mine, and process minerals in a region they had mostly avoided for years.

• A new coordination task force is accelerating mining deals between the U.S., Rwanda, and the DRC

• The U.S.-funded Lobito Corridor railway is creating export routes that avoid Chinese- controlled infrastructure

• Projects in Rwanda and the DRC are now receiving U.S. financial and logistical backing

This is an attempt to create a parallel supply chain, one that the United States and its allies can trust and control.

But catching up will not be easy.

The Obstacles Are Real and Immediate

Eastern Congo still contains over 140 armed groups. Corruption remains widespread.

Infrastructure is underdeveloped, and legal frameworks are inconsistent.

Even with new peace agreements, implementation will be slow and fragile.

American companies must also comply with regulations like the Dodd-Frank Act, which require complex supply chain audits that Chinese firms often bypass entirely.

This creates a cost and speed disadvantage for the West.

China, with state backing and a higher tolerance for risk, can move faster, spend more upfront, and absorb political shocks.

Despite this, the United States is moving forward, because there is no alternative.

The Stakes Are Rising Fast

Demand for cobalt and lithium is projected to increase 500 percent by 2050.

These materials are not optional. They are the foundation of electric transportation, renewable energy, battery storage, advanced weapons systems, and more.

Governments are now treating mineral security the same way they once treated oil.

• The European Union has launched stockpiling initiatives

• The U.S. Defense Department is funding domestic and allied supply chain development

• Global commodity traders are shifting capital into mining, refining, and logistics assets

This is not a future trend. It is unfolding now.

Where the Smart Money Is Moving

An index of top critical mineral companies is already up more than 70 percent since early 2024.

More upside is likely, especially in companies focused on cobalt, lithium, platinum, and rare earths in geographies outside of Chinese control.

If you are looking for asymmetrical exposure to a long-term trend, this is one of the clearest cases available.

The playbook is simple:

1. Focus on U.S.- and EU-aligned companies operating in Africa

2. Prioritize assets in regions with improving security and infrastructure

3. Target producers and refiners that serve strategic industries like defense, EVs, and clean energy

This is where capital is flowing. Not into ideas. Into minerals.

The Window to Act Is Closing

The control of Africa’s mineral supply will shape the global economy for decades.

These resources power the systems that define modern life, from logistics and automation to defense and computing.

If you control the raw materials, you influence every industry that follows.

The U.S. has finally entered the race, but the lead China holds is real.

There is still time to position yourself before this shift becomes mainstream.

This is not a headline. It is the beginning of a long-term global pivot.

The only question now is whether you will act before the next phase begins.

Stay Sharp,

Gideon Ashwood