In October 2025, something happened that didn’t make headlines.
Poland bought 16 tonnes of gold. It was their second major purchase in just two months, and they did it while gold prices were hitting record highs.
Most investors would’ve called that irrational. Who buys more of something after it soars?
But central banks don’t play by investor logic. They’re not trying to time the bottom. They’re not chasing price momentum.
They are securing protection, and they’re acting as if the price tag is irrelevant.
The vault doors are swinging wide open again. And the message from the institutions behind the curtain is simple: This isn’t over.
It’s just beginning.
From Quiet Moves to Clear Signals
Brazil is back in the market. They added 15 tonnes in September, then 16 more in October.
Kazakhstan has added gold for seven straight months.
Poland is now sitting on over 530 tonnes, making them 2025’s largest buyer.
Guatemala, a country that rarely enters financial conversations, nearly doubled its reserves in a single purchase.
The trend is spreading from large emerging powers to smaller, often overlooked economies. And they’re all telling the same story.
Gold is no longer a side bet. It’s becoming the foundation.
Central bank reserves now hold 27 percent in gold. That number stood at just 10 percent two decades ago.
Meanwhile, the share held in U.S. Treasuries has fallen to 23 percent.
This is not just a rebalancing. This is a quiet shift in global confidence.
And for the first time since 1996, gold has overtaken Treasuries in global reserve share.
That’s more than a milestone. That’s a vote.
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How BRICS Nations Are Rewiring the Financial System
While central banks accumulate gold, something else is happening behind the scenes.
The BRICS countries, along with new allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are building a parallel system for global trade.
They’re not focused on creating a flashy new currency. They’re focused on cutting the U.S. dollar out of everyday transactions.
Russia and China are now conducting most of their trade in rubles and yuan.
India just settled an oil deal with the UAE using rupees.
China and Brazil are trading commodities directly in yuan and reais.
And BRICS Pay, a multi-country digital settlement system, is being quietly tested to link national payment networks without touching the dollar at all.
This isn’t a theory. It’s already happening.
Every deal made in non-dollar terms chips away at the foundation of dollar hegemony. Even U.S. allies are hedging.
Saudi Arabia, once the keystone of the petrodollar, is now signaling a willingness to price oil in yuan.
The world isn’t ditching the dollar overnight. But it’s learning how to live without it.
And that changes everything.
The U.S. Treasury Market Is Still Massive, but It’s Losing Depth
The numbers look solid on the surface. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries reached a record $9.16 trillion in 2025. Japan and the UK remain strong buyers.
But when you peel back the layers, a deeper story emerges.
China has pulled back to its lowest level of Treasury holdings since the global financial crisis. Russia, petro-states, and others are gradually reducing their exposure as well.
America is becoming increasingly reliant on a smaller group of friendly nations—and on domestic investors to finance its deficits.
At the same time, yields are climbing.
The 10-year Treasury yield crossed five percent earlier this year, which hasn’t happened in decades.
That’s not just a pricing adjustment. It’s a trust adjustment.
Investors are asking for more to lend to the U.S. because the risks no longer feel theoretical. They feel present.
The “risk-free” asset is starting to feel risky.
And the more fragile the safety net becomes, the more appealing gold starts to look.
Gold Isn’t a Hedge Anymore. It’s Becoming the Core.
Gold prices are up more than 70 percent this year. And the buyers driving that move aren’t the Reddit crowd. They’re sovereign wealth funds, institutions, and central banks.
Western investors are catching on. In September alone, $10 billion flowed into gold-backed ETFs.
This is not a fad.
We are watching the early stages of a new portfolio model. One that’s no longer centered around stocks and bonds alone.
Asset managers are already shifting toward a 60/20/20 structure. That’s 60 percent equities, 20 percent fixed income, and 20 percent real assets like gold and commodities.
In this model, gold isn’t a hedge. It’s a pillar.
And it’s not just about performance. It’s about security.
Gold has no counterparty risk. No exposure to inflationary policy. And in this new cycle, it has even shown a positive correlation to rising rates.
Investors are no longer asking, “Why gold?” They’re asking, “Why didn’t we own more?”
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The Dollar Isn’t Dying. But Its Reign Is No Longer Absolute.
Let’s be clear.
The U.S. dollar is still dominant. It still accounts for the majority of global trade and reserves. But the terms of that dominance are shifting.
America’s financial power has always depended on the world’s willingness to keep playing along.
That willingness is now conditional.
It’s no longer granted by default. It must be earned.
More and more countries are searching for alternatives, not because they want to take down the U.S., but because they no longer want to be exposed to it.
This is not a collapse. This is a slow, strategic evolution.
And for investors who understand what’s happening, this shift creates opportunity.
Because as the global monetary system rebalances, the assets that benefit from that shift won’t be the ones everyone used to lean on.
They’ll be the ones already being embraced by the smartest and most cautious players in the world.
Gold is at the top of that list.
What You Can Do Right Now
You don’t need to bet against the dollar to prepare. You just need to stop pretending nothing is changing.
Start by asking yourself three questions:
How much of your wealth depends on U.S. dollar assets?
If the answer is “almost all of it,” you may want to revisit your strategy.
Are you building real resilience into your portfolio?
Gold is no longer a speculative idea. It’s a form of insurance that central banks are buying in bulk. You can too—through bullion, ETFs, or diversified real asset exposure.
Are you watching the world’s quiet signals, or just reacting to the headlines?
The financial shift underway won’t happen in a single day. It will unfold quietly, then suddenly. Stay ahead of it.
This isn’t about abandoning the system. It’s about surviving the transition.
The dollar’s era is evolving. The future will be more plural, more volatile, and more rewarding for those who adapt early.
The world’s most sophisticated money managers are preparing for that future now.
And so should you.
Stay Sharp,
Gideon Ashwood
P.S. Happy New Year! There won’t be an essay on Thursday, as I’ll be out of the office for the rest of the week. Wishing you and your loved ones a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year. Thank you for being part of this journey. We’ll see you next year, ready to hit the ground running.