On February 2, 2026, President Trump picked up the phone. On the other end: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Hours later, the world heard Trump declare victory: "India will stop buying Russian oil. They'll buy ours. And Venezuela's. A huge win."
But was it?
Modi publicly thanked the President for slashing tariffs.
But when it came to confirming the oil pivot? Radio silence. No decree. No orders to refiners. Just one thunderous question now echoing across global energy markets:
Can India afford to walk away from $11 billion worth of discounted Russian oil?
What’s at stake isn’t diplomacy.
It’s a head-on collision between global politics and the cold, immovable physics of oil.
The Real Cost of Alignment